Dick Clarke, Man of Action

Spiegel descends (further) into parody, and drags the New York Times along. Here's their description of the events of September 11:

The entire capital seems to be on the run. Government departments, offices and official agencies are cleared, and emergency response centers are activated throughout the country. In the center of the eye of the hurricane, in the White House situation room, a room bristling with monitors, Richard Clarke, a hero and the President's special counter-terrorism advisor, takes control of the situation.

Throw in a square jaw and steely glare, a couple of heaving bosoms and a bag of popcorn and we're set for the evening. Dick Clarke action figures will no doubt be appearing in toy stores across Germany very soon now.

Despite having a rough month, President Bush's odds are holding up well on the Iowa Electronic Markets and Ideosphere's FX (an idea futures game that doesn't use real money). Glenn Reynolds wonders what information the market participants have that the conventional wisdom does not.

I think we're seeing a difference in focus rather than information. The futures markets focus on the eventual outcome, while day to day jostling drives the conventional wisdom.

If we accept the Feiler Faster Thesis, frequent reversals of fortune are par for the course these days, which means that any one setback is largely irrelevant. Barring an unlikely knockout punch (e.g. the Dean scream), this back-and-forth will continue right up to election day.

The markets have taken that into account, and they're discounting the tactical advances and setbacks as largely irrelevant. Unless a clear longer term trend emerges, they'll continue to reflect the underlying economic reality (pretty good, actually) and projections for the situation in Iraq (which I for one expect to be a lot calmer 6 months from now).

Post-Madrid, this kind of statement is reckless. However Romano Prodi intends it to play, the terrorists will hear a practical invitation to "intervene" bloodily on his behalf in the upcoming Italian elections.